Day-Ahead Prediction of Distributed Regional-Scale Photovoltaic Power

نویسندگان

چکیده

Day-ahead forecasts are required by electricity market investors to make informed decisions on the trading floor. Whereas it is relatively easier predict performance of a few large-scale photovoltaic (PV) systems, large number small-scale PV systems with wide geographical spread poses more challenges because they often not metered for real-time monitoring. This paper proposes an artificial neural network (ANN)-based model achieve regional-scale day-ahead power based weather variables from numerical predictions (excluding solar irradiance) as inputs. The was first implemented dividing region into clusters and selecting representative site each cluster using data dimension reduction algorithms. Solar irradiance were then generated system corresponding simulated. output obtained linear upscaling summed produce forecasts. model’s accuracy validated generation several distributed in California. results show at least 29-percent root mean square error over benchmarking models.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: IEEE Access

سال: 2023

ISSN: ['2169-3536']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2023.3258449